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U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
The curve is modestly upward-sloping as of Oct 8, 2026: the 10-year yields 5.22% and the 2-year 4.75%, a 2s10s spread of +47 basis points. Compare today's curve with one month and one year ago, and see how the spread has moved.
Data as of the Thursday, October 8, 2026 close. Refreshed each trading day after the close. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Delayed and for education only; verify before acting.
2s10s spread
+47 bp
10Y minus 2Y
3m10y spread
+99 bp
10Y minus 3M
10-year yield
5.22%
+42 bp vs 1 month ago
2-year yield
4.75%
+36 bp vs 1 month ago
30-year yield
5.60%
+88 bp vs 1 year ago
Shape
modestly upward-sloping
by the 2s10s spread
| Maturity | Today | 1 month ago | Change | 1 year ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.14% | 3.81% | +33 bp | 4.20% | -6 bp |
| 2M | 4.13% | 3.91% | +22 bp | 4.09% | +4 bp |
| 3M | 4.23% | 3.94% | +29 bp | 4.01% | +22 bp |
| 4M | 4.29% | 4.02% | +27 bp | 3.94% | +35 bp |
| 6M | 4.30% | 4.00% | +30 bp | 3.82% | +48 bp |
| 1Y | 4.44% | 4.15% | +29 bp | 3.66% | +78 bp |
| 2Y | 4.75% | 4.39% | +36 bp | 3.58% | +117 bp |
| 3Y | 4.85% | 4.44% | +41 bp | 3.58% | +127 bp |
| 5Y | 4.99% | 4.57% | +42 bp | 3.72% | +127 bp |
| 7Y | 5.11% | 4.68% | +43 bp | 3.91% | +120 bp |
| 10Y | 5.22% | 4.80% | +42 bp | 4.13% | +109 bp |
| 20Y | 5.64% | 5.26% | +38 bp | 4.69% | +95 bp |
| 30Y | 5.60% | 5.25% | +35 bp | 4.72% | +88 bp |
Rising yields are shown in red because they mean falling bond prices; falling yields in green.
2s10s spread, Jan 2, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026
What today's shape says
Long rates are above short rates but not by much. This is a normal shape with restrained expectations for growth and inflation, or a curve recovering from a prior inversion.
The front of the curve (one month to two years) is anchored by the Federal Reserve: those yields track where the fed funds rate is and where the market expects it to go over the next couple of years. The long end (ten to thirty years) is set by expectations for growth and inflation over decades, plus a term premium for the uncertainty of holding a bond that long. The shape is the difference between those two stories.
Why investors watch the curve
| Reader | What they take from the curve |
|---|---|
| Stock investors | The 10-year yield is the discount rate applied to future earnings; a higher yield lowers the present value of growth stocks most. |
| Homebuyers | Mortgage rates move with the 10-year yield plus a spread, usually within days. |
| Banks | Banks borrow short and lend long, so a steep curve widens their margin and an inverted one squeezes it. |
| Economists | An inverted 2s10s or 3m10y has preceded every US recession since the late 1960s, with a lag of six months to two years and at least one false alarm. |
| The Fed | The curve tells the committee whether the market believes its guidance; a large gap between the two-year yield and the policy rate is a disagreement. |
The yield curve guide covers the shapes and their history in depth, bond yields explains how the numbers on this page are quoted, and recession indicators puts the curve alongside the other signals. To price a specific bond at today's yields use the bond yield calculator; to see what the futures market expects the Fed to do, read Fed funds futures and the dot plot.
Frequently asked questions
What is the yield curve?
A line connecting the yields of Treasury securities from the shortest maturity (one month) to the longest (30 years) on a given day. Its shape shows what the bond market expects for interest rates, growth and inflation over those horizons.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
Short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, most often measured as the 10-year yield minus the 2-year. It means investors expect rates to be lower in the future, usually because they expect the Fed to cut in response to slowing growth. Inversions have preceded every US recession since the late 1960s, with lags of roughly six months to two years and at least one false signal.
What is the 2s10s spread?
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield, in percentage points or basis points. Positive means a normal upward slope; negative means inversion. It is the most quoted single number for the curve's shape. The 3-month to 10-year spread is the version the Federal Reserve's own research has favored.
Where does this data come from?
The U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes par yield curve rates every business day. This page reads that feed after each close, plots the current curve against the curves from about one month and one year earlier, and computes the spreads. Nothing is estimated or interpolated.
Why do mortgage rates follow the 10-year yield?
Because a 30-year mortgage is usually repaid or refinanced within about a decade, lenders price it off the 10-year Treasury plus a spread for credit and prepayment risk. When the 10-year moves, mortgage rates follow within days.